![]() It is persistent and dynamic, consistently adapting to changing political circumstances and opportunities, rather than dissipating. (1) Political violence is rising and manifesting as disorder in multiple forms. Drawing on the ACLED dataset of almost a million political violence and protest events across over 100 countries, we can discern four broad patterns that summarize the current conflict landscape and indicate how disorder is likely to evolve in the future: An intensification of violence and risk has accompanied these notable shifts. This downturn is manifest through multiple internationalized wars and massive humanitarian crises, rising nationalism from global powers, transnational terror organizations using sophisticated recruitment techniques, cyber-attacks orchestrated by marginalized states, sustained levels of violence in nominally ‘post-conflict’ countries, and a drastic rise in the number of non-state violent agents. In the past 10 years, the world has witnessed a decline in global cooperation and security. It is an updated and expanded version of Global Conflict and Disorder Patterns: 2019. ![]() This paper was presented at the 2020 Munich Security Conference at a side event hosted by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) in partnership with the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP).
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